Apple shares tumble 4 percent in heavy trade

NEW YORK/SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Shares of Apple Inc tumbled nearly 4 percent on Wednesday, rounding off a bleak ten weeks for the most valuable U.S. company, with analysts citing factors such as increasing competition in the tablet market.

The stock was one of the biggest percentage losers on the S&P 500, dropping 5.2 percent to $545.56 at one point as more than 17 million shares changed hands, putting it on track to surpass the company's average daily volume over 50 days of 21 million shares.

The stock's massive size meant the retreat was responsible for two-thirds of the 1.1 percent decline in the Nasdaq 100 Index on Wednesday.

Analysts gave different reasons for the decline. Some cited a research report saying the company will lose share in the tablet computer space next year. Others cited reports of higher margin requirements at clearing firms, and several investors said uncertain tax rates on capital gains in 2013 prompted selling.

"Depending on what happens with the (U.S. fiscal negotiations), rates could rise next year or they could stay the same," Brian Battle, director of trading at Performance Trust Capital Partners in Chicago, said. "They will not be lower, so if you're an investor who has seen gains in Apple, it is better to take those gains this year rather than next."

Apple is still up 36 percent so far this year, but has been weak recently, dropping into bear market territory. The stock is now down nearly 22 percent from its all-time high of $705.07 a share of September 21.

Some were perplexed at the sudden falling out of favor of the stock, which so far has been a staple in almost all growth portfolios.

"Apple stock is significantly more volatile than its earnings and innovation stream," Daniel Ernst, analyst with Hudson Square Research said. "And yet the wind blows slightly from the south instead of the east one particular morning and the stock is down 6 percent."

"It makes no sense. There are lines around the block for their products all around the world," he added. "No other company has that."

On Wednesday, research firm International Data Corp said Apple would shed market share in the tablet computer space for all of 2012, with consumers favoring devices that run on Google's Android platform instead of Apple's popular iPad product line.

Apple's worldwide tablet market share would slip to 53.8 percent in 2012 from 56.3 percent in 2011, while Android products would increase their share to 42.7 percent from 39.8 percent, IDC said.

The main reason for the negative sentiment around the stock is likely concerns about new competition in the tablet market, Colin Gillis, an analyst with BGC Partners, adding that some investors who were hoping for a special dividend this year may be disappointed as time is running out.

"If you were expecting special dividend by year end, that's less likely to happen because its December 5," he said.

TAX SELLING

Separately, Nokia is to partner with China Mobile, the world's biggest mobile operator, in a sales deal that will give the Finnish company an opportunity to win back Chinese market share from Apple's iPhone.

"This is not going to be a short-term trend. This is a management test, of how well they can perform without (deceased former chief executive) Steve Jobs," said Battle.

Referring to one of Apple's most recent product launches, a version of the iPad that was smaller but not a new product category, Battle said Apple would need "another home run" for shares to return to levels around $700.

"They need another new product that hits it out of the park. Without that, they could get a gradual grind-down in confidence," he said.

The 7.9-inch iPad mini marks Apple's first foray into the smaller-tablet segment and is the company's first major new device since the death of co-founder Jobs last year.

While lines for the new iPads had appeared lighter than usual when it hit stores in November, the company said at that time that demand was so strong that it "practically sold out of iPad minis". It said it sold 3 million of its new iPads -- including the newer full-size version -- in the first three days on the market.

Apple is currently ramping up the introduction of its latest iPhone 5 smartphone and smaller iPad mini tablet in international markets. The company is launching the iPhone 5 in 50 countries in December, including China and South Korea.

Some analysts suggested that investors also sold shares of Apple amid uncertainty over ongoing fiscal negotiations in Washington. If no agreement is reached on the issue, higher taxes on dividends and capital gains are possible in 2013. That has prompted some investors to lock in profits now, particularly on a stock like Apple, which has posted gains of at least 25 percent for four consecutive years.

Tax selling "can take a life of its own," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.

"Some taxable investors take the gains, that creates some negative momentum, institutional investors are heavily weighted the stock and reduce exposure."

(Additional reporting by Charles Mikolajczak in New York and Doris Frankel in Chicago; Editing by Bernadette Baum and Andrew Hay)

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Athletes lose medals; Armstrong decision pending

LAUSANNE, Switzerland (AP) — The IOC stripped medals Wednesday from four track and field athletes caught doping at the 2004 Athens Olympics — including one gold medal winner — and held off revoking Lance Armstrong's bronze from the 2000 Sydney Games.

The International Olympic Committee executive board disqualified four athletes whose Athens doping samples were retested this year and came back positive for steroids, including shot put gold medalist Yuriy Bilonog of Ukraine.

The others are hammer throw silver medalist Ivan Tskikhan of Belarus and two bronze medalists — women's shot putter Svetlana Krivelyova of Russia and discus thrower Irina Yatchenko of Belarus.

The IOC wants Armstrong's medal back from a road time trial in Sydney following the damning U.S. Anti-Doping Agency report that painted Armstrong as a systematic drug cheat. The International Cycling Union recently stripped Armstrong of his seven Tour de France titles from 1999-2005.

But the IOC said it must wait for UCI, the cycling's governing body, to formally notify Armstrong of the loss of all his results since August 1998. The IOC wants to avoid any legal problems in connection with the eight-year statute of limitations in the Olympic rules.

"The IOC today will not move," IOC President Jacques Rogge said at a news conference following a two-day board meeting in Lausanne. "We need to have the situation whereby the UCI notifies officially Mr. Armstrong of the fact that he will be disqualified, declared ineligible and that he should hand over his medal.

"This is a legal obligation not for the IOC but for the International Cycling Union. When he will be notified, Mr. Armstrong will have 21 days to launch an appeal if he wishes. It is only after this period of 21 days that the IOC can legally take action."

In track, the case of a fifth bronze medalist, weightlifter Oleg Perepechenov of Russia, is pending.

The IOC said it will ask the International Association of Athletics Federations to get the medals back from the four athletes and readjust the results and rankings from the Athens Games.

Until then, no decision will be taken on reallocating the medals. Adam Nelson of the United States finished second in the shot put in Athens behind Bilonog and would stand to move up to gold.

In 2004, the Athens Games produced a record 26 doping cases. Six medalists — including two gold winners — were caught at the time. The retroactive tests bring the number of Athens cases to 31, including 11 medal winners and three gold medalists.

Since Athens, the IOC has been storing doping samples from each Olympics for eight years to allow for retesting when new detection methods become available.

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Longer tamoxifen use cuts breast cancer deaths

Breast cancer patients taking the drug tamoxifen can cut their chances of having the disease come back or kill them if they stay on the pills for 10 years instead of five years as doctors recommend now, a major study finds.

The results could change treatment, especially for younger women. The findings are a surprise because earlier research suggested that taking the hormone-blocking drug for longer than five years didn't help and might even be harmful.

In the new study, researchers found that women who took tamoxifen for 10 years lowered their risk of a recurrence by 25 percent and of dying of breast cancer by 29 percent compared to those who took the pills for just five years.

In absolute terms, continuing on tamoxifen kept three additional women out of every 100 from dying of breast cancer within five to 14 years from when their disease was diagnosed. When added to the benefit from the first five years of use, a decade of tamoxifen can cut breast cancer mortality in half during the second decade after diagnosis, researchers estimate.

Some women balk at taking a preventive drug for so long, but for those at high risk of a recurrence, "this will be a convincer that they should continue," said Dr. Peter Ravdin, director of the breast cancer program at the UT Health Science Center in San Antonio.

He reviewed results of the study, which was being presented Wednesday at a breast cancer conference in San Antonio and published by the British medical journal Lancet.

"The result of this trial will have a major, immediate impact on premenopausal women," Ravdin said.

About 50,000 of the roughly 230,000 new cases of breast cancer in the United States each year occur in women before menopause. Most breast cancers are fueled by estrogen, and hormone blockers are known to cut the risk of recurrence in such cases.

Tamoxifen long was the top choice, but newer drugs called aromatase inhibitors — sold as Arimidex, Femara, Aromasin and in generic form — do the job with less risk of causing uterine cancer and other problems.

But the newer drugs don't work well before menopause. Even some women past menopause choose tamoxifen over the newer drugs, which cost more and have different side effects such as joint pain, bone loss and sexual problems.

The new study aimed to see whether over a very long time, longer treatment with tamoxifen could help.

Dr. Christina Davies of the University of Oxford in England and other researchers assigned 6,846 women who already had taken tamoxifen for five years to either stay on it or take dummy pills for another five years.

Researchers saw little difference in the groups five to nine years after diagnosis. But beyond that time, 15 percent of women who had stopped taking tamoxifen after five years had died of breast cancer versus 12 percent of those who took it for 10 years. Cancer had returned in 25 percent of women on the shorter treatment versus 21 percent of those treated longer.

Tamoxifen had some troubling side effects: Longer use nearly doubled the risk of endometrial cancer. But it rarely proved fatal, and there was no increased risk among premenopausal women in the study — the very group tamoxifen helps most.

"Overall the benefits of extended tamoxifen seemed to outweigh the risks substantially," Dr. Trevor Powles of the Cancer Centre London wrote in an editorial published with the study.

The study was sponsored by cancer research organizations in Britain and Europe, the United States Army, and AstraZeneca PLC, which makes Nolvadex, a brand of tamoxifen, which also is sold as a generic for 10 to 50 cents a day. Brand-name versions of the newer hormone blockers, aromatase inhibitors, are $300 or more per month, but generics are available for much less.

The results pose a quandary for breast cancer patients past menopause and those who become menopausal because of their treatment — the vast majority of cases. Previous studies found that starting on one of the newer hormone blockers led to fewer relapses than initial treatment with tamoxifen did.

Another study found that switching to one of the new drugs after five years of tamoxifen cut the risk of breast cancer recurrence nearly in half — more than what was seen in the new study of 10 years of tamoxifen.

"For postmenopausal women, the data still remain much stronger at this point for a switch to an aromatase inhibitor," said that study's leader, Dr. Paul Goss of Massachusetts General Hospital. He has been a paid speaker for a company that makes one of those drugs.

Women in his study have not been followed long enough to see whether switching cuts deaths from breast cancer, as 10 years of tamoxifen did. Results are expected in about a year.

The cancer conference is sponsored by the American Association for Cancer Research, Baylor College of Medicine and the UT Health Science Center.

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Marilynn Marchione can be followed at http://twitter.com/MMarchioneAP

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Possible Wintour appointment gets London talking

LONDON (AP) — Thomas Jefferson, Ben Franklin, John Quincy Adams ... and now Anna Wintour?

A report suggesting that the influential editor-in-chief of Vogue is one of the candidates being considered for the top U.S. diplomatic post in France or Britain has sparked spirited debate about her qualifications, exciting Britain's glamour-hungry tabloids but raising hackles at the conservative Daily Telegraph.

"Anna Wintour may be an enticing pick for a celebrity-fixated White House," wrote Nile Gardner in the Telegraph. "But she is eminently unsuitable for America's most prestigious diplomatic posting."

The possibility that the British-born Wintour would move into London's grand ambassadorial residence was raised several years ago by The Guardian newspaper — where her brother Patrick is a prominent journalist — and again this week by Bloomberg News, which based its report on "two people familiar with the matter."

Officials at the U.S. Embassy in London said they would not speculate on President Obama's eventual choice for a successor to Ambassador Louis Susman, who has announced plans to step down. White House officials have also refused to comment.

Officials caution that a decision is months away and would only follow the appointment of a new secretary of state to replace outgoing Hillary Clinton and would also include a thorough vetting process.

Guardian fashion writer Jess Cartner-Morley said the editor — the model for the imperious character played by Meryl Streep in "The Devil Wears Prada" movie — would be well-suited for an ambassadorial position.

"Wintour is generally acknowledged as whipsmart and extremely hard-working," she wrote. "She is enormously charismatic, a born networker and a formidable fundraiser."

Cartner-Morley also challenged the dismissive view that Wintour's many years in the fashion industry are not enough, citing recent ambassadorial choices of a retired investment banker and a retired car dealership owner.

"Is a career as one of the biggest global players in an industry estimated to be worth $900 billion to the world economy really so inferior and shallow by comparison?" the writer asked.

Vogue spokeswoman Megan Salt in New York said Wednesday said that Wintour is very happy with her present job.

Wintour raised $40 million for Obama's re-election through a number of campaigns and star-studded dinners she co-hosted with some of the most powerful people in the entertainment and fashion worlds. In August, she teamed up with movie mogul Harvey Weinstein for a fundraising dinner, after a successful party at Sarah Jessica Parker's Manhattan home in July.

The ambassadorial posts in France and Britain — formally known as the Court of St. James's — are among the most coveted in the diplomatic ranks. They also typically go to wealthy individuals willing to use personal funds to buttress the government-provided entertainment budget.

Wintour, 63, is best-known for her trademark glossy bob hairstyle, oversized sunglasses and haughty demeanor. Born in London, she started in fashion journalism at Harper's Bazaar and New York magazine, and after working at the helm of other glossies became editor-in-chief at U.S. Vogue in 1988.

Carne Ross, a former British diplomat who now runs a New York-based diplomatic advisory group, said Wintour's skills — "honed in the vicious world of the fashion industry" — would qualify her for a diplomatic posting.

Ross said a large part of an ambassador's job involves taking part in social gatherings, something Wintour would be comfortable with. Often most of the real political work is done by direct communications between the White House and the prime minister's office at Downing Street, he said.

"That diminishes the political significance of the ambassador's role," he said.

Mary Jo Jacobi, a presidential adviser during two Republican administrations, said Wintour would be an unusual choice but possibly an effective one.

"Vogue is a very successful, very large publication, and she has experience with big budgets and with challenging, difficult people," Jacobi said. "She knows how to marshal resources. And her job has involved a great deal of diplomacy."

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ICC lets ComEd delay smart meters until 2015

The Illinois Commerce Commission on Wednesday approved ComEd's request to delay the installation of smart meters until 2015 but said it will revisit the issue in April when the utility is scheduled to file a progress report on the program.

Under massive grid modernization legislation, ComEd was supposed to begin installing smart meters this year, but the ICC cut the funds ComEd was expecting to receive under the program and the utility said it could no longer afford to install the meters that quickly. The two sides are battling in court in a process that could take years.

An administrative law judge, as well as several consumer advocacy groups, had recommended the commission not accept the delay.

Jim Chilsen, spokesman for Citizens Utility Board, said a delay is not in the best interest of consumers. According to a ComEd commissioned analysis, the delay means consumers will miss out on approximately $187 million in savings that could come from the program over 20 years and will pay $5 million more for the smart meters. Chilsen said that CUB, which had urged the commission not to delay the program, will review the order once it becomes available and that it could seek to appeal the decision before the Illinois Appeals Court.

Other aspects of smart grid installation are under way, including "smart switches" used to automatically isolate outages and reroute power to customers. However, smart meters are the most consumer facing aspect smart grid and let the utility track on a computer what customers lack power and those who have had power restored.

Without the smart meters, customers must alert ComEd to an outage. Other parts of smart grid allow ComEd to see where the power is out in general.

The smart meters were a major component in ComEd's pitch to the state legislature for massive regulatory overhaul legislation that streamlines the rate-making processto give ComEd faster and more frequent rate hikes as it undertakes the multibillion-dollar grid modernization.

jwernau@tribune.com | Twitter @littlewern

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Bears may be missing Urlacher

Brian Urlacher chats with Seattle Seahawks tackle Breno Giacomini in the second quarter at Soldier Field on Sunday. (Jos M. Osorio, Chicago Tribune / December 4, 2012)

By Brad Biggs, Tribune reporter

12:17 p.m. CST, December 4, 2012

The Chicago Bears are bracing to be without middle linebacker Brian Urlacher for Sunday’s game at Minnesota.

The club signed Dom DeCicco to the 53-man roster Tuesday, according to a source who has seen the player at Halas Hall, bringing him back three months after he was released with an injury settlement.

Urlacher’s status for the game is unknown after he removed himself before the final play of Sunday’s overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks with a right hamstring injury. Bears coach Lovie Smith referred to it as a pulled hamstring during his press conference on Monday.

DeCicco, who was second on the team with 17 special-teams tackles as an undrafted free agent from Pitt a year ago, is not being added to necessarily replace Urlacher on the field. But he did play middle linebacker during training camp when Urlacher was sidelined with his knee issue.

The Bears likely will go with the alignment they used to finish the game with strong-side linebacker Nick Roach moving to the middle and reserve Geno Hayes filling in on the strong side. Hayes has been a core special teams player and DeCicco could fill that role. Special-teams coordinator Dave Toub called the loss of DeCicco during training camp a big blow.

DeCicco required surgery to correct his groin injury and with the settlement he was prevented from re-signing with the Bears until after Week 10. He has been busy with workouts, visiting the Oakland Raiders, New England Patriots and Detroit Lions.

The Bears will have to make a corresponding roster move to clear space for DeCicco. The team is also going to put wide receiver Terrence Tolliver through a tryout. He spent time with the Lions and Houston Texans last season.

Linebacker Aaron Curry, a former first-round draft pick of the Seattle Seahawks, was put through a workout last week by the Bears but they obviously determined DeCicco was a better fit for this need.

bmbiggs@tribune.com

Twitter @BradBiggs

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Nokia Siemens to close German services unit: sources

FRANKFURT/HELSINKI (Reuters) - Nokia Siemens Networks' (NSN) German services unit faces closure and 1,000 jobs are at risk as Nokia and Siemens shake up the joint venture, two sources said.

One of the people familiar with the situation said the closure would be effective by the end of 2013 and will be announced on Wednesday during a meeting at which workers will be told a crucial contract with Deutsche Telekom will not be extended.

The Mobile telecoms equipment joint venture is cutting costs and plans to shed a quarter of its staff and sell product lines to focus on mobile broadband. The program is expected to yield about 1 billion euros ($1.31 billion) in cost savings by the end of next year.

The telecoms equipment market is going through tough times with stiff competition from Chinese peers Huawei and ZTE as the major telecoms operators postpone investments, faced with shrinking markets due to the weak economy.

France's Alcatel-Lucent has also said it will cut costs and jobs to survive stiff competition and weak demand.

NSN Services Gmbh, which generates under 100 million euros in annual sales and employs about 1,000 people, provides network operations and management services and also includes Vodafone among its customers.

Deutsche Telekom sold the unit to NSN five years ago, when the two companies also agreed on a 300 million euro services contract that now will not be renewed, according to the sources.

NSN, which declined to comment, has said such services, often provided on older overhead cable networks, are not considered core operations, and it exited a similar business in Brazil earlier this year.

Verdi union representative Mike Doeding said that a meeting to update workers about next year's plans was scheduled for Wednesday, adding he had no idea about what message to expect from management.

"If they are to close the unit it would be an outrage," Doeding said.

Deutsche Telekom referred requests for comment to NSN.

On Monday, NSN said it was selling its optical fiber unit to Marlin Equity Partners, resulting in the transfer of up to 1,900 employees, mainly in Germany and Portugal.

NSN had 60,600 employees at the end of the third quarter.

($1 = 0.7650 euros)

(Reporting by Harro ten Wolde and Maria Sheahan in Frankfurt, Tarmo Virki and Terhi Kinnunen in Helsinki; Editing by Louise Heavens and Hans-Juergen Peters)

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Chiefs had given counseling to Belcher, girlfriend

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) — Kansas City Chiefs officials knew that linebacker Jovan Belcher and his girlfriend were having relationship problems, and the team provided the couple with counseling in an effort to help, a police official said.

Belcher fatally shot Kasandra Perkins, 22, at their Kansas City home Saturday before shooting himself in the head in the Arrowhead Stadium parking lot in front of team officials who were trying to stop him, including general manager Scott Pioli and head coach Romeo Crennel.

Police Sgt. Richard Sharp told The Kansas City Star for a Tuesday story (http://bit.ly/SDwg9m ) that the couple had been arguing over relationship and financial issues for months and that the team had been "bending over backward" trying to help them. Sharp didn't specify how long the couple had been undergoing counseling.

When Belcher arrived at Arrowhead on Saturday, he encountered Pioli in the parking lot and told him the assistance the team had offered hadn't fixed the couple's problems and now "it was too late," police told The Star.

Pioli tried to persuade Belcher to put down his gun as Crennel and linebackers coach Gary Gibbs arrived at the scene.

Belcher thanked the men for everything the team had done for him and asked if Pioli and team owner Clark Hunt would take care of his daughter, The Star reported.

After that, Belcher reportedly said, "Guys, I have to do this."

"I was trying to get him to understand that life is not over," Crennel said Monday. "He still has a chance and let's get this worked out."

When Belcher heard police sirens approaching, he knelt behind a vehicle and shot himself in the head.

Investigators believe Belcher killed himself because he was distraught over shooting Perkins, Sharp said.

"He cared about her," Sharp said. "I don't think he could live with himself."

The night before the killings, Perkins had attended a concert downtown with friends and Belcher had been out at the Power and Light District, police said, while Belcher's mother was watching their 3-month-old baby. Detectives don't know exactly what the couple was arguing about but The Star reported that Belcher was upset that Perkins had stayed out so late.

Autopsies with toxicology tests were performed on both bodies but it could be weeks before results are known, police said.

Police spokesman Darin Snapp said Monday that Belcher's mother was given temporary custody of the couple's daughter.

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CDC says US flu season starts early, could be bad

NEW YORK (AP) — Flu season in the U.S. is off to its earliest start in nearly a decade — and it could be a bad one.

Health officials on Monday said suspected flu cases have jumped in five Southern states, and the primary strain circulating tends to make people sicker than other types. It is particularly hard on the elderly.

"It looks like it's shaping up to be a bad flu season, but only time will tell," said Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The good news is that the nation seems fairly well prepared, Frieden said. More than a third of Americans have been vaccinated, and the vaccine formulated for this year is well-matched to the strains of the virus seen so far, CDC officials said.

Higher-than-normal reports of flu have come in from Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas. An uptick like this usually doesn't happen until after Christmas. Flu-related hospitalizations are also rising earlier than usual, and there have already been two deaths in children.

Hospitals and urgent care centers in northern Alabama have been bustling. "Fortunately, the cases have been relatively mild," said Dr. Henry Wang, an emergency medicine physician at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.

Parts of Georgia have seen a boom in traffic, too. It's not clear why the flu is showing up so early, or how long it will stay.

"My advice is: Get the vaccine now," said Dr. James Steinberg, an Emory University infectious diseases specialist in Atlanta.

The last time a conventional flu season started this early was the winter of 2003-04, which proved to be one of the most lethal seasons in the past 35 years, with more than 48,000 deaths. The dominant type of flu back then was the same one seen this year.

One key difference between then and now: In 2003-04, the vaccine was poorly matched to the predominant flu strain. Also, there's more vaccine now, and vaccination rates have risen for the general public and for key groups such as pregnant women and health care workers.

An estimated 112 million Americans have been vaccinated so far, the CDC said. Flu vaccinations are recommended for everyone 6 months or older.

On average, about 24,000 Americans die each flu season, according to the CDC.

Flu usually peaks in midwinter. Symptoms can include fever, cough, runny nose, head and body aches and fatigue. Some people also suffer vomiting and diarrhea, and some develop pneumonia or other severe complications.

A strain of swine flu that hit in 2009 caused a wave of cases in the spring and then again in the early fall. But that was considered a unique type of flu, distinct from the conventional strains that circulate every year.

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Online:

CDC: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly

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Royal pregnancy highlights succession issues

LONDON (AP) — The business of monarchy has always been stacked in favor of men. Not any more — or so the British government promises.

The first child of Prince William and his wife Kate will be born a king or a queen in waiting, under changes to succession rules designed to overturn centuries of tradition and give royal daughters the same rights as sons.

Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg pledged Tuesday that the law on succession would be changed at the "earliest opportunity." He said "whether the baby is a boy or a girl, they will have an equal claim to the throne."

"Born to rule, be it a boy or a girl" proclaimed the Daily Mail, which noted that the baby had "already made royal and constitutional history" even before it is born.

Not so fast, caution others.

A royal saga needs a touch of uncertainty, and experts point out that despite politicians' promises, the law giving males primacy in succession has not yet been changed — and the clock is ticking.

"We know that the wishes of politicians are written in water," said royal historian Robert Lacey. "Law only becomes law when the law is made — and the law has not been made."

Meanwhile, the Duchess of Cambridge — the former Kate Middleton — was "continuing to feel better" Tuesday as she spent a second day in a London hospital being treated for acute morning sickness, St. James's Palace said. Photographers and camera crews from around the world camped outside, eager for news on the royal pregnancy. Officials said earlier the duchess was not yet 12 weeks pregnant.

Congratulations poured in from around the world at the good news, which follows Kate and William's lavish royal wedding in 2011 and Queen Elizabeth II's Diamond Jubilee celebrations this year.

Officials say Kate and William's baby will displace Prince Harry, William's younger brother, as third in line to the throne — and the child will stay there, even if she is a princess who later acquires a younger brother.

For centuries, preference was given to male heirs, so a first-born princess would be leapfrogged in the succession by a younger brother. As a result, there have been some 40 kings of England since the Norman Conquest in 1066, but only seven queens.

Last year, the leaders of Britain and the 15 former colonies that have the queen as their head of state informally agreed to establish new rules giving female children equal status with males in the order of succession — something that will require legal changes in each country.

"Put simply, if the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge were to have a little girl, that girl would one day be our queen," Prime Minister David Cameron said at the time.

Months passed with little progress. But the prospect of a royal birth next year seems to have focused political minds, at least somewhat: Clegg announced Tuesday that all 16 nations had now formally agreed to change their laws.

Clegg also said a Succession to the Crown Bill would be introduced in Britain's House of Commons as soon as the parliamentary schedule permits.

"Notwithstanding a few parliamentary turns of the wheel, this is now going to happen," Clegg said, adding that "the old-fashioned rules ... have been swept aside."

In Britain, implementing the new rule means changing bits of several key constitutional documents, including the Bill of Rights and Coronation Oath Act of 1688, the 1701 Act of Settlement and the 1706 Act of Union with Scotland.

Lacey said if it is not done by the time the baby is born, uncertainty is bound to remain. A first-born girl could find her younger brother challenging her for the throne on the grounds that the law had not been changed at the time of her birth.

And what if Kate has twins? Experts say the firstborn will be the heir — but things could get complicated if the succession rules are not changed before the birth.

"Say they have twins and a girl comes out first and 20 years later the boy turns out to be the more attractive character," Lacey said. "People will say that at the time the law meant the boy should have inherited."

Rebecca Probert, a professor at the University of Warwick's school of law, said there are other issues that the law should address to bring the monarchy up to date.

British monarchs are banned from marrying Roman Catholics, but not members of other faiths — something Clegg said the new law would change.

An heir also cannot marry without the monarch's permission, and can't marry in a civil ceremony — even though Prince Charles, William's father, did just that when he wed his second wife, Camilla Parker Bowles, in 2005.

Probert said it's important "to have a clause in there confirming that monarchs are able to marry in the same ways that are open to their subjects."

But she thinks that may prove too complicated for lawmakers in the short term.

"They might decide in the interests of time to stick to the single issue of gender and leave the rest to a more convenient time — which tends to be never," she said.

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Jill Lawless can be reached on http://Twitter.com/JillLawless

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